At the current population growth rates, by the year 2500 people will be standing shoulder to shoulder on every piece of habitable land on this planet. So while our immediate problems have to do with global warming and obvious aggressions in various parts of the world, at some point population is going to become a focus as well.
It seems somewhat obvious to me that at some point there needs to be a type of population control on this planet. I’ve been racking my brain trying to figure out how to implement something like that that doesn’t have any massive moral implications, and truthfully, I haven’t come up with an answer yet. Some people argue that natural disasters and diseases may ultimately solve the population problems for us. That may be true, but I certainly don’t think it’s representative of the growth this planet has seen. For example, of all the people who have ever lived, laughed and loved on this planet, half of them are alive right now around 6% – 10% are alive right now.
So this is an open ended discussion. Do you think population control is necessary? If so, how would you enact it? Would you tax couples with more than two kids? How does that affect religious groups that refrain from using birth control? What do you think?
I expect disease or disaster will be the likely population control, not unlike in the animal world when the population gets too large.
The “half of all people who’ve ever lived” number isn’t accurate — rather than half, the current population is more like 6 to 10% of the overall historical total (still a remarkable proportion):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population#Number_of_humans_who_have_ever_lived
The best population control seems to be education and improvements in standards of living, as well as the availability and acceptability of birth control. Birthrates in heavily industrialized countries, such as our own, have declined incredibly rapidly in the past half-century. Look at Quebec, which went from huge families as recently as the early 1960s to lower-than-replacement birthrates today, with the biggest change happening in a single generation during the Quiet Revolution.
There were no drastic impositions of family-size restrictions there, nor in the rest of Canada. The biggest change was the secularization and modernization of Quebecois society.
The problem, of course, is that our current methods of improving standards of living for people around the world also involve massive increases in per-capita energy consumption. Even if population numbers level out in the 9-billion range (as many demographers expect), or even if they stayed where they are now, we’ll need to find a way for people to live better without exacerbating climate change.
There are ways to do that, but energy system changes are where the drastic measures are going to have to happen.
@Jeremy – True, but the animal kingdom isn’t full of doctors and hospitals. We probably should have been eradicated by many diseases over the years, but thanks to vaccines and what-not, we’ve stayed ahead of the curve.
There should be guaranteed jail time and forced financial remuneration paid to government social programs that are inevitably depleted from the result of doctors impregnating mentally unwell and unfit mothers (such as the octo-mom).
Fertility treatments should really not occur at all; for every person who can’t have kids there are a dozen who can. Why are we encouraging overpopulation? Resources are depleting in double quick time and no matter what despairing prospective mothers and fathers say, it’s not worth it for the planet to continue down this path.
@Derek – Thanks, I’ve updated that stat. It’s way less cool now, but at least it’s accurate.
The year 2500? Uh…so, I’m REALLY not worried about population control that far out. Our Earth will be an overheated husk filled with deserts if we don’t fix climate and pollution issues.
Yup, those issues are far more pressing for sure. But increases in population naturally lead to increased CO2 emissions, so at some level they’re linked.
What’s wrong with good ol’ war and disease? As soon as commodities and natural resources get scarce, the good ol war will solve the problem. Oh, Yellowknife might blow soon too.
Wops.. that should be yellowstone.
You never know, those Yellowknifers can get pretty ornery.
@Victoria: Fertility treatments and weird outlier situations like the octuplets in California are hardly typical, and they tend to occur (because they are expensive) in places where birthrates are already low. I doubt criminal sanctions would do much good there in any case. The real population problems are happening in places where people have lots and lots of babies the old fashioned way.
Explosive diarrhea. KA-BOOM! Population under control.