Things To Take Along

My goal on my trip is to get myself down to a single backpack when I leave. It’s obviously going to be a pretty technologically heavy backpack, but it’s still going to be pretty light. Most people I know who have traveled say that the amount you enjoy yourself on trips is inversely proportional to the amount of stuff you bring along, and I can totally believe that.

That’s not to say you can’t purchase items when you arrive, because that’s what I plan to do. But in terms of what I take along, here’s a short list of what I’m planning on taking:

  • 13″ Macbook Pro (just got it — nice and light)
  • Apple iPad
  • Mini-DV to Composite Cable (I have to buy one yet, but for $20 it means I can hook my laptop up to any TV and watch movies)
  • A few pairs of jeans and t-shirts, socks, etc.
  • Basic toiletries – toothbrush, razor blades, shaver
  • Two pairs of shoes – one semi nice, and a pair of runners for hikes and day trips
  • Basic wireless router. Probably an Airport Express
  • Basic point and shoot camera – maybe the top of the line Powershot when the time comes. I’m not taking my SLR – it’s just too large
  • Analog Telephone Adapter (ATA) – I’m going to get a Vancouver VOIP number and pick up an analog phone so I can get local calls wherever I am.
  • Small, 2.5″ external hard drive with all my movies and backups on it

I’m actually planning on renting or subletting apartments when I go, so I’m not going to be living out of my backpack for long. But, I want to have the flexibility to take it all with me when I feel the need to see something new again.

I don’t really have a good backpack at this stage, and my plan is to hit MEC or another store in Vancouver and buy a nice laptop that has a slow for a 13″ Laptop inside. If anyone has any ideas where I can get a nice one, let me know.

Given that I only use my iPad for reading right now, I may even leave it behind on this trip and pick up a $130 Kindle instead. The iPad is pretty fun to read on, but it’s terrible outdoors. Given that I’m planning on heading to a sunny country, the Kindle might make more sense. But, I can always bring both I guess.

I’m sure I’m leaving things out at this stage, but that’s a rough list. If anyone can think of anything small that I might want to bring, let me know.

Posted in Vagabonding | 7 Comments

The Roads Less Travelled

I was out with some friends the other day in Stanley Park in Vancouver, and I was briefly considering changing my Twitter profile photo to a shot my friend John took. Rebecca then pointed out that it probably would be good to finally get rid of the PlentyOfFish photo I have had on Twitter for a while. Since I had no idea what she was talking about, I started prying for some more information. Apparently the photo I had put up on Twitter was a watermarked version that I had put on PlentyOfFish a few years ago. I’m not sure how the watermarked copy ended up on my computer, but somehow I managed to get it up on Twitter and leave it there for about six months. Oops.

Thankfully all my friends thought it was a deliberate joke, but the truth is I had no idea. I mean, who looks at their own photo on Twitter?

On that note, I thought I’d write a post about online dating. Back in about 2005 I took a brief stab and seeing what it was all about. I had profiles on Lavalife and PlentyOfFish, and probably went on about 8 or 9 dates after it was all said and done. I ended up dating a girl from Lavalife for about two years, and have managed to stay in touch with about three of the other girls over the years – but the rest were pretty much duds. In fact, I suspected many girls at the time were simply using Lavalife as a way to get a free date every once and a while, something my roommate (who was a girl) admitted to one night as well. Being an old fashioned kind of guy, I picked up quite a few tabs for girls who I’m pretty sure didn’t really care at all about getting to know me better or getting anything else out of the date besides a free meal. But whatever, I can’t exactly blame them for that. But without a doubt, those experiences back in the day have left me a bit jaded with regards to going on dates these days.

I no longer have any online profiles any more, but I occasionally bounce around Craigslist to see if I’m missing anything. Truthfully, not a lot. While Craigslist probably isn’t the best place to meet a great person, I find as I get older there are less and less opportunities to meet people in “the real world” who aren’t piss drunk all the time or looking for a free ride. I’m also surprised by the complete lack of basic english skills in some of the postings. Sure, I use short hand when I’m typing on my phone sometimes. But Craigslist isn’t a phone, right? See the big green Send button on your computer? Me either.

One thing I’m always amazed at is the amount of effort people spend dictating what it is they must have in a significant other, without touching on anything at all they can provide. And when I say provide, I don’t mean services, cleaning, massages, or what not. But all the ads seem to be completely one-sided, which is probably why most of the people on there aren’t really dating material in my book.

Sure, having a 6’2″ boyfriend might be pretty cool when you’re a 5’5″ tall girl – but is that a requirement? Nice car, nice place, good job, slick hair. Maybe these girls should just start dating movie posters.

I won’t lie, part of the reason I want to do a bit of traveling is that I really haven’t met many people in my home town with similar interests as myself, either guys or girls. I went on a few dates this last year that I thought might go somewhere, but unfortunately life got in the way, as it often does. I honestly spend enough time talking about technology and the internet during the day that I don’t really care if I ever end up with a girl that is interested in those things as well, but having someone that is interested to some degree because I am interested would be a bonus. But unfortunately most people here in Chilliwack settled down right out of high school (a large percentage of them started settling down in high school actually!), so I feel a tad bit out of place lately around here these days.

I’m not expecting the world to suddenly change when I get on an airplane, but I am at some level expecting myself to change. There aren’t a lot of opportunities to get out and do things around here, and I find I spend the majority of my free time hanging out close to home. I like hitting a pub and having beer with friends as much as the next person, but it seems like I’ve been doing that same routine for over a decade now, and it’s growing a bit old.

I remember living in Ottawa, and being a bit lonely when I moved out there. Jump ahead two years and things were pretty much the same. Sure, I had met some friends, but when we weren’t all out drinking, I found myself at home most of the time. Since I’ve found myself a bit stagnant lately in my home town, and really can’t imagine anything changing locally here to mix that up, I figure the change has to come from me, so I’m going to branch out and see some new things.

Obviously my family is a bit sad to see me go, and I’m going to be a bit sad to leave. But I am looking forward to a new adventure, and for opening up some new possibilities. One of the main reasons I moved back home in 2009 was to save some money and work to get BraveNewCode off the ground with Dale. After two years now, I think things are doing just fine, and I can afford to take a few more risks in my life now.

Where will the road go? I’m not sure to be honest. If I were to have looked back last year at where I’d be today, it wouldn’t be here. That’s not bad per se, it just is. Maybe when I’m done traveling I’ll end up back here. Or maybe I’ll end up back in Vancouver for a while. Or maybe somewhere exotic where the beer flows free and the siestas are long. The not knowing is actually part of the fun, so we’ll see.

Posted in Personal | 5 Comments

124 Days

I just wrote four post-dated rent cheques, one for each month until the new year. After that, I should be officially homeless, at least for a while. I have to give notice on my apartment on October 30th, which would put me out of my place on December 31st. Right now the plan is to take off on the 2nd of January or so, which means I can hang out around here for Christmas and New Years, and then hit the open skies.

I haven’t had much time to study spanish yet, but I’m going to start blocking the time out in my calendar each week so I’m done all my lessons before I take off. I did one lesson a few weeks ago, but since I haven’t gotten back to it in a while, I imagine I’m going to have start all over.

Right now the plan is to start in Buenos Aires. Depending on how things go there, I might head somewhere else afterwards. In terms of cities and countries where I know a few people, here’s a short list:

  • Caracas, Venezuela
  • Lyon, France
  • Novi Sad, Serbia
  • Chicago, USA
  • Limerick, Ireland
  • London, England
  • Auckland, New Zealand

So, if I were to go anywhere afterwards, I would probably start with one of those.

Posted in Vagabonding | Tagged , , | Leave a comment

Cool Additions to the iPhone

I’ve said it before, but I’m going to say it again: I think the iPhone would be a lot cooler if it had a temperature sensor on it. In terms of technology, all it is a single temperature controlled resistor (called a thermistor), probably worth about 5 cents. But it would be cool to be on a patio and be able to see how hot it is.

I also think that if everyone opted in to given this data to a central repository, that it would be possible to increase the accuracy of our existing weather models a great deal. Currently weather models are primed using sparse initial conditions. For example, in Vancouver, I believe the only data comes from downtown, the north shore, and a weather station out in Richmond. So, three points representing a whole city.

Another good idea came from my friend Alex – having a pressure sensor in the iPhone would also allow it to report altitude fairly easily. That would also be another great point for weather data, and another interesting piece to submit to a public repository.

Anyways, just a few random ideas. But given that the iPhone already has a compass, both a temperature and a pressure sensor don’t really seem like crazy ideas to me anymore.

Posted in Technology | Tagged , , | 8 Comments

The Obama Administration and the Future

You know, I remember being in a pub in Yaletown with my friend Dave the night Obama was elected. The place was absolutely packed, and other than the people who were seated there early, it was standing room only for everyone else. There were TVs all over the place showing what was going on in the states, and everyone was glued to the TV, waiting to see the results.

I’m not at all joking when I say this next part — people cried in the Yaletown Brew Pub when Obama was elected. In Vancouver, Canada, in the heart of one of the most pretentious areas in North America, people cried when the new president of the United States, Barack Obama, was elected. It wasn’t just one person with an itchy eye either, there were tears all over the place.

And who could blame them? Obama represented morality and change. For the first time in ages, here was a president that presented the world with hope that things might be better, not just in the United States, but on a global stage. Close Guantanamo, improve the economy, implement a health care plan. These were all noble goals.

But here we are, nearly two years since that day, and for the most part Obama has been a pretty big let down. Obviously he inherited the worst economy since the great depression, and also the longest war in in the history of the US. But even so, I can’t help but feel that there was a lot of smoke in his campaign, but not a lot of fire after the fact.

I was watching the movie National Treasure not that long ago, and there’s a line that stands out to me. While reading the Declaration of Independence, Nicolas Cage’s character remarks nostalgically that people don’t speak that way any more.

And they don’t.

Nobody talks about liberty any more, or the values associated with it. It’s just an abstract concept that people take for granted. And as a result, at least in the United States, those liberties have been slowly (and ironically, approvingly) taken away a piece at a time. How will liberty die? If the Patriot Act is any indication, then it’ll be like George Lucas’ fictional vision of the past – it’ll die by thunderous applause.

Thomas Jefferson once commented that “the tree of liberty must be refreshed from
time to time, with the blood of patriots and tyrants. ” I’m not a violent person, but I often wonder what the future will hold. I’ve always been a supporter of gun restrictions, mainly due to accidental deaths. But the reality is that it’s hard to defend one’s self against their own government without arms. That’s the basis for the United State’s Second Amendment to the Constitution — that the right to bear arms is a fundamentally protected right.

Bear in mind that the founding fathers had seen the result of government gone astray. The Constitution in many ways represents the desire by the founding fathers of the US for reduced government – a government with it’s powers purposefully splintered into separate bodies to protect against the tendency of government to usurp power.

I was watching a few videos tonight of some of the presidential and candidate debates from 2008. Of those of note are some by Ron Paul, a person I hadn’t been familiar with at the time, but have now come to appreciate as a Libertarian and a Republican. Despite not being in the runnings really for president, he was third for raising funds, probably because many ordinary people associate with Paul’s core values — reduce government and restore the constitution.

In one video of Paul from the presidential debates, he remarks that 9/11 was simply Blowback, the end result of decades of intervention by the United States in the Middle East, often under the guise of promoting freedom when in fact it was often to protect the United States’ energy policy.

Without a doubt, it was in my mind. Prime Minister Jean Chretien also said something similar shortly after 9/11 (and I gained some respect for him for saying it) – that it was imperative that nations, especially the United States, reevaluate their foreign policies in the context of 9/11 to see if they contributed to that event. He took flack for saying it, as did Ron Paul by Mayor Giuliani.

Obama has two years left to turn things around. Given his massively inflationary policies regarding the economy, it’s pretty much certain that the US economy will be in complete shambles by 2012, and I find it unlikely he’ll be re-elected on that fact alone. But a lot can happen between now and then, so we’ll see what happens I guess in a few years. I for one have been a bit disappointed in his performance, mainly in some of his key campaign promises such as closing Gitmo. But maybe he’ll turn things around in the next two years.

Posted in Politics | 1 Comment

An Inconvenient Hockey Stick

The following graph formed the basis for Glenn Beck’s video talking about hyperinflation, but I thought I would repost it here. Inflation, by definition, is the expansion of the monetary base in a country. While conventionally most people associate rising prices (as measured by the consumer price index – CPI) as inflation, that’s just the symptom of inflation — the root cause in the expansion of the monetary supply.

Most people concede that price increases tend to lag inflation by a year or two. So any inflation of the money supply today probably won’t be felt in terms of prices for another year or so.

This graph represents the United States M0 money supply – basically the amount of bills in circulation plus the amounts in reserve. You can clearly see the inflationary effect of Bush and Obama’s stimulus packages at the end. It’s also worth noting that up until 1971 (when Nixon abruptly ended the convertibility of the US dollar into gold) inflation was very modest.

The reason none of that inflation has been felt in consumer prices yet is that most of it is sitting in the reserve and central bank waiting to be loaned out.

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Economic Reading List

It should be obvious by reading my blog entries over the last few months that I’ve become interesting in aspects of economics. In an effort to understand the current financial crisis, I’ve been trying to read as many different viewpoints on the meltdown as well as general economic theories. To that end, I wanted to point out some of the books I’ve read recently. I’ll also give a rating based on what I thought of it.

Too Big To Fail – 4/5

This book discusses the meltdown from the viewpoint of the big financial institutions such as AIG and Lehman Brothers.

Aftershock – Protect Yourself and Profit in the Next Global Financial Crisis – 2/5

This book had a few pointers about how to survive the upcoming economic apocalypse, but a lot of it was fluff.

Lords of Finance – 4/5

This book gave an overview of some of the big financial players over the last 150 years or so. I thought it was a pretty interesting read.

Crash Proof 2.0: How to Profit From the Economic Collapse – 4/5

Some good pointers in here, many of which I had already read. But it was a good read.

How an Economy Grows and Why It Crashes – 5/5

I love this book, and re-read bits and pieces of it whenever I’m bored. It teaches basic economic principles using the story of a few guys on an island learning how to fish. The author, Peter Schiff, is a well known proponent of the Austrian school of economics.

End The Fed – 4/5

The Federal Reserve is a private/public entity in the United States that, despite reporting to Congress, somehow operates in almost complete secrecy. The Fed refuses to release information about where all the bailout money went, refuses to release any additional information about the M3 money supply (which details the expansion of the money supply, and indirectly the current levels of inflation), and also refuses to be audited.

Many people blame the Fed’s interventionist policies (and indirectly Keynesian economics) for the Great Depression, and pretty much every major massive depression since then. The US dollar has lost nearly 97% of its purchasing power since the Federal reserve was created.

This book presents arguments for why the Federal reserve should be disbanded.

Where Keynes Went Wrong – 4/5

The economic theories of John Keynes (now dead) have been adopted by many of the world’s leading countries (the economic game plan for the Kennedy, Johnson, Nixon, Bush, and Obama administrations have been rooted in Keynesian economics – by comparison, Reagan, who followed Austrian economics, was responsible for “bringing about one of the longest peacetime expansions in U.S. history” by exercising fiscal restraint and not giving into inflationary economics [wikipedia]).

In short, John Keynes believed the way to maximize the output of an economy was to prevent busts from occurring by stimulating the economy through government intervention. The primary methods to do this involve adjusting interest rates and by printing additional money to inject into the economy. By definition, John Keynes policies are inflationary, meaning that they “work” by constantly expanding the money supply (and eroding the value of savings).

Many people who follow the Austrian school of economic thought believe that Keynesian economics are massively flawed, and that economic depressions recessions are required to reallocate investments that have been misallocated and to allow the economy to rebalance properly in terms of prices and wages. Their belief is that government intervention forces the economy into a unnatural state, and that injecting additional money into a failing economy simply causes asset bubbles (that should collapse based on fundamentals) to continue to inflate.

This book argues that John Keynes was wrong, using a lot of his own writings against him.

Posted in Finance | 5 Comments

A Federal Problem

Within the United States, there is a strange entity, neither completely public or completely private, that manages the monetary policies of the United States. This entity, The Federal Reserve, has the task of adjusting interest rates, and also attempting to stimulate the economy using various mechanisms such as Quantitative Easing.

Thomas Jefferson, one of the founding fathers of the United States, had this to say about a government influenced monetary system:

I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. Already they have raised up a money aristocracy that has set the government at defiance. This issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people to whom it properly belongs. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around them will deprive the people of all property until their children will wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. I hope we shall crush in its birth the aristocracy of the moneyed corporations which already dare to challenge our Government to a trial of strength and bid defiance to the laws of our country”

Thomas Jefferson said those words back in 1791.

Each year the Fed expands the money supply, usually by printing additional money which it then uses to pay for debt. This process leads to inflation, and the decrease in the purchasing power of an individual dollar. Inflation in this manner is really the confiscation of wealth from a country’s citizens by its government. Ironically, the previous chairman of the Federal Reserve, Alan Greenspan, wrote a paper in 1966 talking about inflation and the gold standard (my emphasis):

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation. There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth.

Many people seek out gold as a hedge against inflation measures, which is usually a smart thing to do. Unfortunately in dire times the government often makes it illegal to hold gold, and has previously made it illegal for citizens to hold gold, forcing people to exchange gold for dollars – one such example is executive order 6102 back in 1933. Gold was illegal to own in the United States for nearly 42 years. If everyone gave up dollars for gold, it would be impossible for the government to inflate the dollar to pay for debt, since nobody would want the dollar. Which is why it’s possible that the United States may attempt to outlaw possession of gold in the coming years.

Without a doubt, inflation is a big problem, one that’s only going to increase as the United States continues to have problems paying its debt. If inflation spirals out of control, it will become hyperinflation, which has destroyed many countries in the past, including Germany (In December 1923, the exchange rate was 4,200,000,000,000 Marks to 1 US dollar) and Hungary (in August 1946 the total value of all Hungarian banknotes in circulation amounted to one-thousandth of one US dollar). The only hedge against inflation are commodities with intrinsic value, such as precious metals, or the currency of other countries.

Posted in Finance | Tagged , , | 5 Comments

What Goes In Must Come Out

It’s no secret that over the last few decades the economies of North America have changed from ones that favour saving to ones that favour spending. When interest rates were 10%, you could simply leave your money in the bank and watch it grow. Now with inflation rates of around 3% per year (which is typically caused by the government printing more fiat money), your purchasing power will decrease if you leave your money in the bank. That means that most of us are forced to put our savings into the Stock Market Casino and hope that black comes up more often than red.

With interest rates hovering around 0%, only a fool would leave the majority of their money in the bank. GICs are obviously an option, but unless you are making more than 3% per year, you’re just pissing money away as well. Also, GICs are illiquid, meaning that it’s difficult to get access to them in case of emergency (not without forfeiting whatever gains you would have made on them). A diversified stock/bond portfolio sounds like a good idea, but when everything is tanking at the same time, that’s kind of a downer as well.

Strangely enough one asset class continues to do fairly well, and that’s preferred shares for blue chip stocks such as banks. I don’t own any, mainly because I don’t have a grasp of the logistics involved in purchasing stocks and writing off capital gains on them, but returns of 6% due to company dividends aren’t unheard of for some Canadian Banks. Obviously companies aren’t obligated to pay out dividends, but many blue chips have a long history of paying out consistent dividends. Taking into account inflation, a return of 3% is relatively meagre, but a lot better than 0% or negative.

Down south the US real estate market has essentially been devastated, along with a large percentage of the savings for families who looked to their house as a form of retirement savings. With low interest rates, many families used their savings to buy bigger and better housing, then proceeded to use their house as a ATM machine to finance other purchases such as vacations and home upgrades. I read a stat a while ago that said more than 25% of home owners in the United States now have negative equity in their homes — they owe more than the house is worth. In fact, in some parts of the US people are literally walking away from their homes.

We’ve been told by financial experts that we should be saving around 10% of our income to fund retirements and for a rainy day. Most books I’ve read said the sign of a good economy isn’t spending, but it’s actually saving, since saving leads to capital investments which ultimately helps the economy grow. So having money grow in the coffers should be sign of good long term economic health.

Which is why it’s unfortunate that the current savings rate in the United States is almost 0%, the lowest level since the Great Depression. I haven’t been able to find any stats for Canada, but I suspect at most it’s just a few percentage points above the US rate.

It gets worse. Not only are families unwilling or unable (most likely the latter) to save, they are starting to pull their money from their retirement savings. 401k withdrawals hit a 10 year high this year. Given that most families are significantly unprepared for retirement expenses, this can only end badly.

The continued government response to the shoddy economy is to try and toss more money at it, often in the form of printed or borrowed money. All that’s doing is inflating the bubble even further. Eventually the bubble has to pop, at which point many of the artificial gains made by people in both the stock market and the housing market will be wiped away. It will be painful, but it needs to happen to return the economy back to fundamentals instead of one based on free credit and massive speculation.

Posted in Finance | Tagged , , | 3 Comments

The Cellular Canary In The Coal Mine?

When I posted about the iPhone 4 a few weeks ago, a few people thought I might be smoking crack to think that people buying unlocked phones would have any impact on the cell phone industry in Canada. While that still remains to be seen, Rogers just announced that they’re willing to sweeten a 3 year contract by $100, which in my mind is a direct result of the lack of people signing up (or extending their current contract) to a 3 year contract compared to previous iPhone launches. Obviously that’s just my gut feeling, but it’s in line with my previous thinking regarding people wanting to jump from contracts, and the cellular industry’s attempt to keep people in them.

You can read about it here.

Posted in Technology | 2 Comments